Half of HVAC Sales Close on Touches 4 Through 6. Are You Following Up?

Most HVAC contractors send an estimate, follow up once, and assume silence means no. According to Hatch (2024), who analyzed 163,000 HVAC sales follow-up campaigns, roughly half of all closes happen between the fourth and sixth customer contact. If your follow-up process ends at touch two, you are walking away from jobs that were still in play.

• How many follow-up touches does it actually take to close an HVAC estimate?
• What format and length works best for HVAC follow-up messages?
• What do current HVAC close rate benchmarks actually tell you?
• Why This Matters for HVAC Contractors

How many follow-up touches does it actually take to close an HVAC estimate?

The short answer is more than most contractors are doing. According to Hatch (2024), the data from over 163,000 campaigns shows that customer response rates do not peak at touch one or two. The probability of getting a reply, and ultimately a signed job, climbs through the middle of the follow-up sequence. Touches four, five, and six are where a meaningful share of conversions actually happen.

This runs counter to how most shops operate. A contractor gives a quote, sends a text or email a few days later, hears nothing, and moves on. That behavior is understandable when you are busy. The problem is that the homeowner has not necessarily said no. They may be comparing two other bids, waiting on financing approval, or trying to reach a spouse who travels for work. Silence at touch one is not a rejection. It is usually just timing.

The practical implication is that a contractor who stops following up after two touches is systematically losing winnable jobs to whoever contacts the homeowner again on day seven or day ten. That competitor does not have to be better. They just have to show up later.

What format and length works best for HVAC follow-up messages?

According to Hatch (2024), SMS outperforms email in response rate for HVAC follow-up campaigns, and message length matters more than most contractors expect. Messages in the 50-to-125-character range consistently produce stronger responses than longer messages. Short, specific, and direct beats thorough every time.

That is not a counterintuitive finding if you think about how homeowners actually read texts. They are standing in a driveway or waiting in a school pickup line. A message that gets to the point in two sentences gets read. A paragraph about your years of experience and financing options gets scrolled past.

The Hatch data also found that the wording of the first follow-up message sets the tone for the entire sequence. Messages that reference the specific system discussed in the estimate, rather than sending a generic check-in, produce noticeably better reply rates. Personalization here does not mean a mail merge. It means writing a message that could only apply to that one customer.

For contractors who want to build a structured follow-up cadence without relying on memory, this is also a natural fit for the kind of automation tools that HVAC software platforms have built in. You do not have to manually track every open estimate if your system does it for you. Related coverage on HVAC missed calls and lead response covers where the first gap in the pipeline typically appears.

What do current HVAC close rate benchmarks actually tell you?

According to a LinkedIn survey of HVAC contractors (2023), residential contractors close an average of 45% of install jobs, while commercial contractors close closer to 38%. The spread between top performers and the industry average is not primarily explained by price. It is explained by process.

Contractors who close at 60% or higher are not necessarily cheaper or faster. They tend to have consistent follow-up habits, clear post-estimate communication, and a defined number of touches before they mark a lead cold. The ones closing at 30% are often giving excellent quotes and then going quiet.

There is also a timing dynamic worth noting. According to the same LinkedIn survey data, faster follow-up after the initial estimate correlates with higher close rates. A response to an estimate request within the first few hours puts you in a fundamentally different competitive position than responding the next day. Homeowners who get a call back quickly tend to anchor on that contractor first. Everyone else is playing catch-up. This connects to broader patterns around how customers choose HVAC contractors during peak season, when response speed becomes a deciding factor.

Why This Matters for HVAC Contractors

The cost of generating an HVAC estimate lead is not trivial. Whether that lead came through Google ads, a referral program, door hangers, or your Google Business Profile, you spent time and often money to get someone to ask for a quote. A follow-up process that ends at touch two throws a significant portion of that investment away.

The Hatch data makes the math concrete. If half your closes are happening on touches four through six, and you are stopping at touch two, you are not closing half as many jobs as you could be. You are leaving those jobs for the competitor who sent one more text.

The fix does not require a sales overhaul. It requires a defined follow-up sequence with a specific number of touches, a consistent message format, and a tool that keeps track of where each estimate is in the process. Most HVAC software already has this capability. The gap is usually not the tool. It is the habit of actually using it.